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Texas Economy & Jobs Picks Up Pace (Dallas Fed. Report)

From: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Growth in the Texas economy is gaining steam. While activity likely slowed at the beginning of the year, it picked up in February and March. Rising oil prices are boosting the energy sector, and Dallas Fed regional business surveys suggest manufacturing activity and retail sales rose in March. Payroll employment is growing at an accelerating rate, with forecast 2011 job growth at about 3 percent. Soft spots remain in construction, single-family housing and commercial real estate (with the exception of multifamily, which is doing well). Texas exports also began the year on a down note.

Labor Market

Texas payroll employment grew at a healthy 2.6 percent annual rate in first quarter (Chart 1). Private-sector employment outperformed overall employment, rising at a 3 percent annual pace in the first quarter. Texas’ growth rate exceeded the nation’s by 1 percentage point.

First-quarter job growth in Texas was broad-based across industries. The energy sector expanded the fastest, followed by professional business services, manufacturing, and education and health services.

The Texas unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent in March from 8.2 percent in February. Although this figure is only 0.1 percentage point below the March 2010 level, the relative stability is at least partially attributable to state labor force growth roughly matching job creation (Chart 2).

 

Construction and Real Estate

Construction contract values fell in February in all categories—residential, nonresidential and nonbuilding—with residential and nonresidential categories rebounding in March. After a pause in January and February, construction employment picked up in March, growing at a 1.6 percent annual rate for the quarter. Single-family housing activity remains weak in Texas and nationally. Existing-home sales in the state are near a nine-year low, and housing construction is close to a 16-year low.

Single-family permits dipped in February and were flat in March. Housing starts, following a six-month decline, were flat in February and ticked up in March.

Texas home inventories remain high—7.5 months of supply at the current sales rate. A six-month supply is generally considered a healthy market. Sales of existing homes fell in February to a seven-month low, with all major Texas metro areas declining. Existing-home sales ticked up in March, rising 6.4 percent from February; however, year-to-date activity is flat.

Texas house prices fell 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months and were off 1.8 percent from prior-year levels, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency Home Price Index (Chart 3).

Commercial Real Estate Markets

 

Commercial real estate is showing tentative signs of improvement. Anecdotally, Dallas Fed Beige Book contacts report that office and industrial leasing activity has picked up in recent months. Fourth-quarter data also suggest improving industrial absorption and vacancy rates. The multifamily housing sector appears to be doing particularly well, with apartment construction and rents rising.

Energy

High oil prices, which climbed to around $110 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate crude in mid-April from $100 a month earlier, are benefitting the energy sector. The Texas rig count continues to climb, with growth driven almost entirely by oil-directed drilling (Chart 4). Natural gas prices have risen modestly in recent weeks to around $4.25 per million British thermal units.

Chart 4:

Exports

 

Texas exports dropped 4.7 percent during the first two months of 2011 after surging 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter (Chart 5). The exports decline occurred despite a weaker dollar, which makes U.S. goods prices more competitive overseas.

Prices and Wages

Regional data from the Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (TMOS) suggest that the rate of price increases picked up in April following a steady rate of gain in February and March. Dallas Fed Beige Book contacts also report several cases of firms passing escalating costs on to customers. Despite higher prices and more hiring, regional wage data and anecdotal evidence from Beige Book contacts show little sign of wage pressures.

Positive Outlook Ahead

The outlook for the regional economy is bright. After a brief pause in January, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index rose sharply in February, suggesting continued economic expansion in 2011 (Chart 6). Broad-based hiring across industries reflects employers increasing confidence that a sustained expansion is under way. Exports and contract values may rebound after early weakness, and the single-family housing market is expected to improve in the second half of the year.

-Pia Orrebius and Adam Swadley

 

Most Health Care Organizations Aim To Expand IT Staff This Year

ihealthbeat.org

How Will WebOS Devs Effect the Creation of I.T. Jobs?

By Richard Adhikari
TechNewsWorld
08/22/11 12:03 PM PT

HP's decision last week to halt development of webOS hardware has put the future of the mobile OS in jeopardy. WebOS app developers have begun sizing up alternative platforms like Android and iOS. Meanwhile, Microsoft is actively recruiting webOS devs, which could help it build its Windows Phone 7 software portfolio.

DFW Bosts Biggest Year over Year Job Growth

From: www.bls.gov

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted) In June, 217 metropolitan areas reported over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment, 143 reported decreases, and 12 had no change.

The largest over-the-year employment increase occurred in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (+62,800), followed by Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.-N.H. (+54,900), Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas (+50,900), and Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, Wash. (+28,700). The largest over-the-year percentage gain in employment was reported in Manhattan, Kan. (+9.1 percent), followed by Sandusky, Ohio (+9.0 percent), Anderson, S.C. (+5.4 percent), and Elizabethtown, Ky., and Steubenville-Weirton, Ohio-W.Va. (+4.7 percent each). (See table 3.) The largest over-the-year decreases in employment occurred in Atlanta-Sandy Springs- Marietta, Ga.(-24,300), Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, Pa.-N.J.-Del.-Md. (-13,300), Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (-11,400), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, Calif. (-11,300). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment were reported in Joplin, Mo. (-9.3 percent), Pascagoula, Miss. (-6.4 percent), Pine Bluff, Ark. (-4.5 percent), and Abilene, Texas (-3.7 percent). Over the year, nonfarm employment rose in 24 of the 36 metropolitan areas with annual average employment levels above 750,000 in 2010. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas were posted in Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, Wis. (+2.7 percent), Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, Mass.-N.H., and Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Texas (+2.2 percent each), and Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, Texas (+2.0 percent). The largest over-the-year percentage decreases in employment occurred in Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. (-1.1 percent), Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind., and Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, Calif. (-1.0 percent each), and Baltimore-Towson, Md. (-0.8 percent).

-Employment Report

Will the Death of the PC Create New I.T. Jobs?

National Job Market Beginning to Stabilize?

From: Associated Press

By: Daniel Wagner

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of people seeking unemployment benefits fell last week below 400,000 for the first time in four months, a sign that the job market is improving slowly after a recent slump.

Applications for unemployment aid dropped by 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 395,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Applications had been above 400,000 for the previous17 weeks.

The four-week average, a less-volatile figure, fell to 405,000, its sixth straight decline. That suggests applications are decreasing over time.

Applications fell in February to 375,000, a level that reflects healthy job growth. They soared to an eight-month high of 478,000 in late April, and have declined slowly since then.

The economy added 117,000 net jobs in July, the government said last week. That was an improvement from the previous two months. But it's far below the average of 215,000 jobs per month that companies created from February through April.

Many employers pulled back on hiring after signs emerged that the economy had weakened from last year. High gas prices and scant wage gains left consumers with less money to spend on discretionary purchases, such as appliances, furniture and electronics. Supply chain disruptions caused by the Japan crisis also dampened U.S. factory production.

The economy expanded at an annual rate of just 0.8 percent in the first six months of the year, the slowest growth in the two years since the recession officially ended.

It's not likely to get much better in the second half of the year. The Federal Reserve on Tuesday said it expects growth will stay weak for two more years. The Fed also acknowledged that the economy's problems go beyond temporary factors, such as high gas prices.

As a result, the Fed said it would likely keep the short-term interest rate near zero at least through mid-2013.

Economists have slashed their growth estimates. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. expects just 2.5 percent growth in the July-September quarter, down from its previous estimate of 3.25 percent. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced its estimate to 1.5 percent, down from as high as 3 percent several weeks ago.

Growth of about 2.5 percent is barely enough to reduce the unemployment rate. The economy needs to grow by 5 percent for a whole year to bring down the rate by one percentage point.

Fears that the U.S. economy could be at risk of falling back into a recession, along with concerns that Europe is struggling to control its debt crisis, have roiled markets in recent weeks. The Dow Jones industrial average has fallen nearly 12 percent so far this month.

Many analysts worry that market turmoil could spook investors and consumers, causing them to take fewer risks and cut back on spending. That would hurt economic growth, making the markets' jitters a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Yahoo Finance

DFW 4th in quarterly job rankings list

 

From: Dallas Business Journal - by Lance Murray

Date: Monday, August 8, 2011

Dallas-Fort Worth is the fourth best metropolitan area in the nation in On Numbers' quarterly rankings of the 100 major markets.

On Numbers reported that Boston led the nation in the rankings that are based on private sector job data and unemployment rates from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The metro areas were scored on five-year job growth, one-year job growth, the jobless rate in June 2010 and jobless rate in June 2011. Dallas was one of 13 metro areas that have more private sector jobs now than five years ago, On Numbers reported. While Boston sits atop the rankings, Fresno, Calif., rests at the bottom as the 100th-ranked metro area.

On Numbers is a feature of American City Business JournalsbizWatch American City Business Journals Latest from The Business Journals Albany is 30th in U.S. job rankingsBuffalo is 19th in U.S. job rankingsPBN to move from Waikiki to downtown by year’s end Follow this company , the parent company of the Dallas Business Journal. The rankings are accompanied by a database ranking the metros in the various criteria.

Dallas Business Journal

Employment Report: Private Sector Jobs Grew in July

 

From: www.mam.econoday.com

Employment Situation

Released on 8/5/2011 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2011   Prior Consensus Consensus Range Actual Nonfarm Payrolls - M/M change 18,000  75,000  25,000  to 125,000  117,000  Unemployment Rate - Level 9.2 % 9.2 % 9.1 % to 9.3 % 9.1 % Average Hourly Earnings - M/M change 0.0 % 0.2 % 0.1 % to 0.3 % 0.4 % Av Workweek - All Employees 34.3 hrs 34.3 hrs 34.3 hrs to 34.4 hrs 34.3 hrs Private Payrolls - M/M change 57,000  108,000  60,000  to 150,000  154,000

Highlights The economy finally got a break with better-than-expected numbers in the July jobs report. Payroll jobs advanced 117, 000, following a revised 46,000 rise in June, and revised 53,000 increase in May. Analysts had projected a 75,000 gain. Also, the May and June revisions were up net 56,000. Private sector growth was somewhat healthier as private nonfarm payrolls grew 154,000 in July, following an 80,000 rise in June and 99,000 increase in May. The median forecast was for a 108,000 boost for the latest month. In the private sector, improvement was seen in both goods-producing and services-providing sectors. Goods-producing jobs gained 42,000, following a 16,000 rise in June. Manufacturing jobs increased 24,000 after an 11,000 rise the month before. For June, auto industry jobs gained 12,000. Construction employment rebounded 8,000 after decreasing 5,000. Mining advanced 9,000, following a 10,000 boost in June. Plenty of pink slips were handed out in the public sector as government employment dropped 37,000, following a 34,000 decrease in June. A rebound in the auto sector appears to be helping earnings. Wage growth picked up as average hourly earnings increased 0.4 percent, following no change in June. The market forecast was for a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers in July was unchanged at 34.3 hours and matched the market consensus. On a year-ago basis, overall payroll jobs in July improved to a 1.0 percent gain from 0.8 percent the month before. From the household survey, the unemployment rate slipped to 9.1 percent from 9.2 percent in June. The July figure came in below expectations for 9.2 percent. The July dip was primarily due to a contraction in the labor force. Today's report should relieve fears that the economy is headed back into recession. Growth is still modest but positive. And maybe the phrase "transitory" will again be seen applying to first half weakness. Equity futures jumped on the news. Treasury yields are down.

Market Consensus Before Announcement Note: Consensus median and range numbers were updated Thursday evening, August 4, to reflect forecast adjustments in response to news since July 29. Nonfarm payroll employment in June slowed to a crawl with an 18,000 gain, following a 25,000 rise in May, and 217,000 in April. Once again, the government sector held down payroll numbers as private nonfarm payrolls outpaced the total with an increase of 57,000 in June, following a 73,000 advance in May. Goods-producing jobs edged up 4,000, following a 3,000 rise in May. Manufacturing jobs rebounded 6,000 after a 2,000 dip in May. Growth in private service-providing jobs slowed to a rise of 53,000 after a 70,000 increase the prior month. The government sector shed another 39,000, following a 48,000 drop in May. Average hourly earnings also slowed June, coming in at no change, following a 0.3 percent rise the prior month. From the household survey, the unemployment rate edged up to 9.2 percent from 9.1 percent in May.

Definition The employment situation is a set of labor market indicators based on two separate surveys in this one report. Based on the Household Survey, the unemployment rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Other key series come from the Establishment Survey (of business establishments). Nonfarm payroll employment counts the number of paid employees working part-time or full-time in the nation's business and government establishments. The average workweek reflects the number of hours worked in the nonfarm sector. Average hourly earnings reveal the basic hourly rate for major industries as indicated in nonfarm payrolls.  Why Investors Care

During the mature phase of an economic expansion, monthly payrolls gains of 150,000 or so are considered relatively healthy. In the early stages of recovery though, gains are expected to surpass 250,000 per month. Data Source: Haver Analytics

The civilian unemployment rate is a lagging indicator of economic activity. During a recession, many people leave the labor force entirely, so the jobless rate may not increase as much as expected. This means that the jobless rate may continue to increase in the early stages of recovery because more people are returning to the labor force as they believe they will be able to find work. The civilian unemployment rate tends towards greater stability than payroll employment on a monthly basis. It reveals the degree to which labor resources are utilized in the economy. Data Source: Haver Analytics

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Moving Tips for When you Land Your New Texas Job

 

Packing with Ease

From: www.buffingtonhomes.wordpress.com

 

Have you recently purchased a new home and are getting ready to move? Congratulations! Now it’s time to pack up your belongings and start your adventure in your new home. Exciting huh?  Well, exciting until you have to start packing. Here are a few tips to help ease the process of moving and to help keep your excitement.

Keeping Track

Once you get all of your boxes in your new home you’ll probably decide to unpack some boxes now and some later. Unfortunately you don’t remember which box you put your toothbrush in. Here’s an idea to help save you from searching through all of your boxes. When you are packing take a notepad and number the boxes. On your notepad put the number and what you packed in the box. This will help you keep track of what’s in each box and you’ll be able to brush your teeth your first night in your new home!

Connecting the Colors

Now that you have numbers on your boxes, assign a color for each room and apply stickers to your boxes. For example, blue for bathroom, purple for bedroom #1, etc. Also mark the rooms with the color stickers so that it’s easy to distribute the boxes into their correct rooms. This will also help the movers or anyone who is helping you move. 

Starting Early

Moving will be 100 times easier if you pack up items that you don’t need weeks before you move to your new home. You won’t need a TV in every room, extra linens, or all your décor so it wouldn’t hurt to get everything that’s not a necessity packed away. With only having to pack what you’ve needed on moving day you are guaranteed to have less stress.

You can view these tips and more in Coral Nafie’s article 12 Terrific Moving Tips When You’re Moving Your Home. 

Do you have any moving do’s or don’ts to share? Please share your tips with us.